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Original Paragraph:
Artificial intelligence might beat nanotech in the annihilation
stakes–or in making heaven on earth. Raymond Kurzweil, a well informed computer
insider, estimates that in about thirty years there will be programmed
computers with human level intelligence. At first glance that suggests a world
of science fiction robots–if we are lucky, obeying us and doing the dirty work.
But if in thirty years computers are as smart as we are and if current rates of
improvement–for computers but not for humans–continue, that means that in forty
years we will be sharing the planet with beings at least as much smarter than
we are as we are smarter than chimpanzees.
Kurzweil's solution is for us to get smarter too–to learn to do part of our
thinking in silicon. That could give us a very strange world–populated by
humans, human/machine combinations, machines programmed with the contents of a
human mind that think they are that human, machines that have evolved their own
intelligence, and much else.
Source: http://patrifriedman.com/prose-others/fi/commented/Future_Imperfect.html#Artificial_intelligence_might_beat_nanotech_in_the
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[Sat Mar 6 00:16:00 PST 2004-65] Leopold (NOSPAMleopold_the_cat@yahoo.com.NOSPAM):
Paul Krugman (in "White collars turn blue") is probably closer. Not robots doing the dirty work - automatic systems doing white-collar work - teaching, doing medical, legal and financial consulting etc. It is much easier to have the computer replace the lawyer than to have it replace the garbagge hauler.
[Sun Nov 14 20:31:17 EST 2004-318] Ray Van De Walker (NOSPAMrgvandewalker@yahoo.com.NOSPAM):
Kurzweil's timeline is too pessimistic about computer speeds, and too optimistic about algorithm development. A company in Israel, Lenslet,
already makes a product http://www.lenslet.com/products.asp, that should
permit human equivalent simulations of neural networks. However, there is some hope about algorithms, as well. Jack Hawkins has just published a theory
(see http://www.onintelligence.org/) that explains an awful lot about how cortexes work. If it's right, then combination with lenslet's technology and some good programming could permit practical AI in less than five years.
[Wed Sep 28 17:45:39 PDT 2005-270] legisjuris@yahoo.com:
The problem with Kurzweil's cybernetic vision of machine/mind interface is that if you take it out further along, the biological part is so much inferior in capability that it becomes superfluous. Brings up the whole Matrix scenario as well, given that machines become so much more intelligent -- at what point can you be sure that your conciousness has not been abducted into one? Not for some silly battery functions, but perhaps for other reasons.
As for the above comment about blue collar work such as garbage collection, even now we have sanitation trucks that pick up garbage off sidewalks without human intervention, except for the driver of the truck. Everything can be automated; it's simply a matter of engineering.
What worries me about the Singularity is this: It is inconceiveable for us to do what chimps tell us to do. Why does anyone think that AI with the same IQ relations with us as we have with chimps (and pulling away from even that metric), are going to listen to what we have to say?
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