Bowling For Columbine - crap crap crap (12/26/02)
I saw Bowling For Columbine a couple days ago. The more I thought about it, the less I liked it. Here are some excerpts from an email I wrote a friend on the subject:
I saw the movie tonight. I agreed with a few bits of it, but on the whole thought it was pretty crappy. An emphasis on emotion and anecdotes rather than facts, and showboating rather than serious research. Asking Charlton Heston why the US has more murders than Canada? Like he has any clue. How about asking an economist or a sociologist - someone whose profession it is to answer these questions, who has vastly more data available than Mr. Moore. Give me a few hours on the internet, and I could come up with better answers and better statistics than BFC. But Moore isn't about serious inquiry, he's about entertainment and political correctness.
He apparently plays pretty loose with his facts:
One of the things which I agreed with was the portrayal of the USA as a country of fear and exaggeration, fed by the media. Making a movie about the incident at Columbine, however, fits BFC right into what is being criticized. Youth violence has been going down, as the second link above points out, yet we obsess about the occasional incidents. I also found his treatment of race horrible. A statistically large %age of homicide victims & perpetrators are black and urban [~50% of victims and ~50% of perpetrators are black]- and Moore focuses on white suburbia (except when he's saying that South Central is safe)? What a joke...
I agree that the media exaggerates threats, and that as we get safer and safer, we obsess more and more about what little dangers are left. But that does not change the fact that the world sometimes is dangerous, and sometimes being afraid of that danger is rational. I know a number of women who have been raped or abused, some by strangers. Maybe rape frequencies are going down - does that make me paranoid or scared to think/say that my female friends should be a little cautious?
One of the theses of the movie seems to be: "The US has lots of guns and lots of crimes. Canada has lots of guns and few crimes. What's the difference? Maybe its because of America's fearful culture."
Suppose that high levels of fear and high levels of gun violence seem to be correlated. I agree that some of the cause might be that fear causes violence. But isn't it a much more reasonable, direct link to suppose that the violence causes the fear? That people are scared because there is violence, as opposed to violent because they are scared? Maybe people in Canada are less scared because they have less crime, as opposed to vice versa. If someone told me that in Foobistan there was a lot of crime, and a lot of fear of crime, and that in Bararia there was not much crime, and not much fear of crime, my first theory would be that fear levels were responses to crime levels. Moore doesn't seem to even consider that theory, or provide any evidence of why we should look to the counterintuitive direction.
My friend suggested that any countries I might expatriate to probably have crime rates far lower than America's, based on Bowling for Columbine's statistics. I replied that BfC compared the US only to a few first-world european countries, and it exaggerated the effect by not compensating for population size. That says little about whether the US has more or less violence than countries in, say, Central and South America, Africa, Asia, etc.
Lets see... http://www.paho.org/english/hcp/hcn/vio/violence-graphs.htm#homicides-citiesLooks like homicide rates in Mexico and Ecuador are 1 1/2 - 2 times more than in the USA. Homicide rates in Colombia are 9 times higher (tho I believe much of that is the US's fault - but it still means its a dangerous country). Venezuela and Brazil are 2-4 times higher. Argentina is half. Chile is 1/3. From another source, Costa Rica's homicide rate seems to be about half of the US's. Panama and Peru's rates are similar to the US. Paraguay and Ecuador are higher.
Looking at the "how are you more likely to die" question, the above link has a nice chart on proportion of external causes of death in various countries. We have:
country cars homicides ratio US 30% 14% 2.14 Venezuela 29% 20% 1.45 Nicaragua 24% 15% 1.6 Mexico 27% 23% 1.17 El Salvador33% 45% .73 Ecuador 26% 23% 1.13 Colombia 14% 55% .25 Brazil 26% 36% .72
Looks to me like if I went elsewhere in the Americas I should start worrying more about homicide and less about cars.
If you want to get gun-specific on these statistics (rather than general homicides), here are some "firearm homicide per 100,000 people" statistics (this is not for all countries)
International Homicide Rate Table (Death rates are per 100,000)
| Country | Year | Population | Total Homicide | Firearm Homicide | Non-Gun Homicide | % Households With Guns |
| South Africa | 1995 | 41,465,000 | 75.30 | 26.60 | 48.70 | n/a |
| Colombia | 1996 | 37,500,000 | 64.60 | 50.60 | 14.00 | n/a |
| Estonia | 1994 | 1,499,257 | 28.21 | 8.07 | 20.14 | n/a |
| Brazil | 1993 | 160,737,000 | 19.04 | 10.58 | 8.46 | n/a |
| Mexico | 1994 | 90,011,259 | 17.58 | 9.88 | 7.70 | n/a |
| Philippines | 1996 | 72,000,000 | 16.20 | 3.50 | 12.70 | n/a |
| Taiwan1 | 1996 | 21,979,444 | 8.12 | 0.97 | 7.15 | n/a |
| N. Ireland | 1994 | 1,641,711 | 6.09 | 5.24 | 0.85 | 8.4 |
| United States2 | 1999 | 272,691,000 | 5.70 | 3.72 | 1.98 | 39.0 |
| Argentina | 1994 | 34,179,000 | 4.51 | 2.11 | 2.40 | n/a |
| Hungary | 1994 | 10,245,677 | 3.53 | 0.23 | 3.30 | n/a |
| Finland3 | 1994 | 5,088,333 | 3.24 | 0.86 | 2.38 | 23.2 |
| Portugal | 1994 | 5,138,600 | 2.98 | 1.28 | 1.70 | n/a |
| Mauritius | 1993 | 1,062,810 | 2.35 | 0 | 2.35 | n/a |
| Israel | 1993 | 5,261,700 | 2.32 | 0.72 | 1.60 | n/a |
| Italy | 1992 | 56,764,854 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 0.59 | 16.0 |
| Scotland | 1994 | 5,132,400 | 2.24 | 0.19 | 2.05 | 4.7 |
| Canada | 1992 | 28,120,065 | 2.16 | 0.76 | 1.40 | 29.1 |
| Slovenia | 1994 | 1,989,477 | 2.01 | 0.35 | 1.66 | n/a |
| Australia | 1994 | 17,838,401 | 1.86 | 0.44 | 1.42 | 19.4 |
| Singapore | 1994 | 2,930,200 | 1.71 | 0.07 | 1.64 | n/a |
| South Korea | 1994 | 44,453,179 | 1.62 | 0.04 | 1.58 | n/a |
| New Zealand | 1993 | 3,458,850 | 1.47 | 0.17 | 1.30 | 22.3 |
| Belgium | 1990 | 9,967,387 | 1.41 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 16.6 |
| England/Wales4 | 1997 | 51,429,000 | 1.41 | 0.11 | 1.30 | 4.7 |
| Switzerland5 | 1994 | 7,021,000 | 1.32 | 0.58 | 0.74 | 27.2 |
| Sweden | 1993 | 8,718,571 | 1.30 | 0.18 | 1.12 | 15.1 |
| Denmark | 1993 | 5,189,378 | 1.21 | 0.23 | 0.98 | n/a |
| Austria | 1994 | 8,029,717 | 1.17 | 0.42 | 0.75 | n/a |
| Germany6 | 1994 | 81,338,093 | 1.17 | 0.22 | 0.95 | 8.9 |
| Greece | 1994 | 10,426,289 | 1.14 | 0.59 | 0.55 | n/a |
| France | 1994 | 57,915,450 | 1.12 | 0.44 | 0.68 | 22.6 |
| Netherlands | 1994 | 15,382,830 | 1.11 | 0.36 | 0.75 | 1.9 |
| Kuwait | 1995 | 1,684,529 | 1.01 | 0.36 | 0.65 | n/a |
| Norway | 1993 | 4,324,815 | 0.97 | 0.30 | 0.67 | 32.0 |
| Spain | 1993 | 39,086,079 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 0.74 | 13.1 |
| Japan | 1994 | 124,069,000 | 0.62 | 0.02 | 0.60 | n/a |
| Ireland | 1991 | 3,525,719 | 0.62 | 0.03 | 0.59 | n/a |
| Country | Year | Population | Total Homicide | Firearm Homicide | Non-Gun Homicide | % Households With Guns |
Notice that the US, at 3.72, is much worse than most countries, but still less than South Africa, Columbia, Estonia, Brazil, Mexico, and N. Ireland, in this incomplete set of countries. I found a more complete source: "We must admit that the U.S. has a higher homicide rate than any Western European nation. Still, 23 nations admit to higher rates: Armenia, Bahamas, Belarus, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Russia, Sao Tome, Tajikistan, Trinidad, Ukraine, and Venezuela." From "America: The Most Violent Nation?" [ http://www.haciendapub.com/stolinsky.html ] which makes for interesting reading.
Also, as for the gun part of this debate versus the "US is fucked up" part, note that the US has a higher *non-gun* homicide rate than many European countries *total* homicide rates. There is clearly more going on than guns (not saying that you or BfC said otherwise, but I think its worth noting). And to put the US in perspective, Mexico (and 5 other countries) have *non-gun* homicide rates higher than our *total* homicide rate.
There are factors more strongly associated with violence than gun ownership and availability. There are some answers out there, for those (unlike Moore) who want to take the time to look for them. I'd suggest looking at drug prohibition. Spending on that "war" and homicide rate are quite nicely correlated. My dad has done an economic analysis exploring potential reasons for this connection, and here's an academic paper which reaches that conclusion by analyzing international data.
BTW, with regards to whether US fear is irrational, note that while the US homicide rate has been dropping for the last decade or so, we've only gotten down to 1967 levels. 1941-1966 still had lower homicide rates than we do now - half of what the homicide rate was in 1971-1982 and at most 2/3 of what it was during the period 1971-1995 [http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/hmrt.htm].
So yes, we should have been feeling safer for the past 10 years. But it was also rational to be much more scared in 1971-1995 than 1941-1966. There was a lot more to be afraid of.
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